Betting Update; England v Croatia with the bookmakers making England their 4/7 favourites

UK. (SANEPR.com) November 19, 2007 -- It was reported that the England boss was just 90 mins away from the sack, if things hadn’t gone for him in that Israel-Russia game, and although they now only need a draw, a defeat against Croatia, who beat England 2-0 at home, will mean England fail, and that will certainly spell the end for McClaren.

So, a draw or better for the England boys on Wednesday, at home to Croatia, and they would have performed an act Houdini would have been proud of. Their visitors currently top the group, but after losing to Macedonia 2-0 at the weekend this now means that the top spot in the group is still up for grabs. Should England win by a three-goal margin this will see them lead the group, while a 2-0 win would also be good enough as the head-to-head record between the pair will be level and therefore be decided on goal difference, of which England’s is greater…. Phew!!

Russia of course still also have a slight chance of clinching that second spot. They face Andorra away, and should win that comfortably, but whereas they had things in their own hands before the weekend, they are now relying on Croatia beating England in order for them to book their place.

The bookmakers are making England the 4/7 clear favourites for the Croatia game in the match odds, with the draw around 5/2 and Croatia 8/1. The Three Lions do however have some issues. Their warm-up game for this, against Austria, last Friday saw them record a fair-looking 1-0 win, but not at a cost! Their leading striker Michael Owen limped off and will miss this game, and it still had me scratching my head as to why McClaren was risking the star names like Owen, Beckham, Lampard and Gerrard in that ‘Nothing Game’ with this massively important match just five days after!

Darren Bent has been drafted in to replace Owen, but for me it looks as if they will side with Crouch and Defoe to lead the line, while they are also without their preferred back line with Terry and Ferdinand still absent.

Because of this turnaround in the battle to qualify the bookmakers have slashed England’s quote of 20/1 to win Euro 2008, before the weekend, to 9/1, and should the Three Lions make it on Wednesday this price will probably come in a shade more.

It looks as if Croatia have taken their foot off the pedal slightly, in these closing games and with the side already qualified, and barring a complete collapse from the Croats, they should still top the group. Their record in the group reads P11 W8 D2 L1, with England’s not to dissimilar P11 W7 D2 L2.

At 4/9 England can be backed to keep a clean sheet, something they have done nine times in this qualifying campaign, a record that no other team has achieved yet in this round of group games. Another trend that indicates England surely can’t mess it up is that when they’ve needed at least a draw in their final game to make it to a major championship they have never failed!

For Croatia, they are of course no mugs and could be a serious threat come next summer in the finals, but like we’ve said we expect a more subdued performance from them having already booked their place. Arsenal striker Eduardo is probably one of their better known stars and with 13 goals in his 20 caps for his country he’ll be a threat to the England back line. He’s available at around 7/2 to score in the game, but the best value in this market is Peter Crouch. He’s sure to start with Rooney and Owen on the sidelines and after getting the only goal, against Austria last Friday, is really starting to prove his worth at this level. That was his 13th goal in 23 appearances and at BestPrice 9/4, just to find the net (as low as Evens), this looks a standout price in a game he’s bound to get chances.

So, in summary expect England to see this one out and gain at least a draw, to make it to Austria and Switzerland next summer. However, the game could easily turn into a cagey tense affair with England not wanting to risk losing. Hopefully they won’t sit back too much and invite the pressure, but at BestPrice 11/2 it might be worth having a saver on the game being 0-0 to cover your Crouch ‘to score’ wager.

Recommended Bets - 5pts – England cleansheet
Recommended Bets - 2pts – Crouch to score at anytime
Recommended Bets - 1/2pt – Correct Score 0-0

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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