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I am frequently asked by friends how I foresee the Middle East’s near future given the rising political tensions and the alarming buildup of arsenal throughout the region.
Although I am neither a “crystal ball” reader nor “Dr. Doom” , I am afraid that “War” is inevitable; given the lining up of the (political) stars.
It is a fact that at no time in recent Middle East history have the interests of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and now the new kid on the block; Turkey, been so aligned. And each of those 4 groups bring important assets to the table of the Middle East. Iran is an energy rich Gulf power with an important nuclear card in hand; Turkey is an emerging Euro-Asian power with NATO membership; Syria is an Arab nation with major influence in Lebanon; and Hezbollah; Iran’s proxy in the region, is the power hungry thug whose obsession is to teach Israel a lesson at any cost.
Add those 4 forces together with a common agenda (i.e.: eradication of Israel, ousting of the US presence from the Middle East and annihilation of the Gulf regimes friendly to the US) to Israel’s plans for a definitive war in Lebanon as part of a core military outlook that sees the demonstration of overwhelming military power against intransigent opponents who are resolutely against peace as the only route to security, and you have a recipe for disaster.
A recent interview in Defense News with Israel's deputy chief-of-staff, Major-General Benjamin Gantz, offers an unusually revealing insight into this mindset. The journal paraphrases his warning “that it could take repeated rounds of high-intensity wars to remove the Iranian-trained and financed threat from the north. The aim, he said, is to prolong the periods of relative quiet between war fighting.”
Major-General Gantz is then quoted directly saying: “Israel cannot exist with protracted peaks of warfare. Therefore we have to reduce them to reasonable levels - similar to the way we drove down terror in the aftermath of Defensive Shield [the IDF's operation in the West Bank in 2002">. That way we allow our people to live reasonably under a protracted emergency situation until we fix it, and then we go back to square one.” “I doubt there will be peace afterwards, but at least we'll be able to extend the time between peaks….he continued saying. Through strategic attrition - one round then another round - we'll create a situation where each new round brings worse results than the last. And that, in and of itself, brings a formidable deterrent.”
Basically, the Benjamin Netanyahu government and much of Israel’s military establishment think that peace today is not anymore possible; Israel can only be secure by being a fortress that periodically strikes out at its enemies to massive effect. There are many dangers in this view. But its logic is also clear: that there is a real risk of another war before too long - and that this will be a double war, against both Iran and Hezbollah.
So God forbids and this war ever materializes:
1. What are the scenarios that could unfold after such a military action?
2. How would we respond?
3. Are we ready?
4. What about the implications for each one of the other contenders in that regional and even global war?
I personally see the War scenario likely to raise hairs on even the thickest and most savvy skins.
Although some of the contemplated outcomes wouldn't bear the scrutiny of conspiracy theorists of the highest order, that may just be because they are all-too realistic. And if time makes some outcomes less plausible, none are impossible. They are indeed deserving of the attention of those who are paid and entrusted to keep us safe, and those who elect and fund them.
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